The Winter Window and Top 4 Race

The January transfer market has been shut, and we had a return to Premier League football after the latest round of international fixtures. Spurs returned to action, and after a win over Brighton in the FA Cup, they returned to their usual disappointing self and lost two consecutive home games against Southampton and Wolves.

The window was decent, but it wasn’t without its low moments. Adama Traore was one of the players we had targeted to increase our attacking threat in the wide areas, but a lack of keenness to play as a wingback and a surprise bid by his boyhood club Barcelona saw us missing out on the Spanish speedster. To be honest, I was quite disappointed with that. He did not have the best of stats, but as I had already said, he might be a gamble worth taking. I feel quite vindicated, as he already has 2 assists in his first two games for Barcelona. The next failed target was Luis Diaz, a Colombian baller with tons of flair and potential. I had doubts that we were going to pull it off in the first place, but as time went on, I got optimistic, which is the worst thing you can be as a Tottenham supporter. According to The Athletic, we had a deal with the Portuguese club and Diaz himself, but being on international duty meant that some formalities took time, and in that time, Liverpool came into the mix, and using Jorge Mendes as their intermediatory, gazumped the winger.

But it wasn’t all doom and gloom, Paraticci went to his old club and bought Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski. They are not the flashiest of players but are young players with good experience and a high upside. There is still a part of me that believes that they were panic-buys at the last moment to cover up for our previous failures, but Bentancur has shown to be quite the player in his limited time so far. The skill on the edge of his own box on his debut was really impressive, and he was the lone bright spot in that disastrous showing against Wolves. Kulusevski hasn’t impressed me so far, but we must not forget that he is very young and in a new league. Before making any judgments, we should give him a proper pre-season and time to adjust.

On the outgoings, I feel they were correct but really harsh. The most striking I found to be was Lo Celso, who I have always believed to be a highly talented player hampered by injuries and managerial changes. I think he deserved some time under Conte, but he was loaned to La Liga outfit Villareal on deadline day. The departure of Ndombele and Dele made sense, the latter making me particularly emotional. He was at Spurs for so long, being a key part of our incredible run from 2015 to 2019, and was a treat to watch on his day. The loaning out of Bryan Gil makes sense, but I think we would have been better off with him in the squad and no Kulusevski. But on the other hand, he would get a lot of game-time in Spain which would be much better for his development, and as a result, us in the long term.

Overall, I’d say we had a positive window. There was quiet optimism among the fans, and the win against Brighton was certainly a reason to be happy. Son and Romero came back in and immediately took us a level up. Emerson Royal, a player we wanted to be replaced put in a brilliant performance, and Harry Kane got a brace. Towards the end, the new boys made their debuts, which was promising.

But then Tottenham did the most Tottenham thing possible. We hosted Southampton at home and were played off the park. The match might have been a one-off, but no; an embarrassing loss to Wolves a few days later got alarm bells ringing. To add to the misery, our next game is against City at the Etihad, which would most likely mean that we have lost four league games in a row next.

Conte was a shell of his enthusiastic self on the touchline during our two defeats

This raises the question: do we miss out on UCL football for the third consecutive year?

It would honestly be a disaster in my eyes. Our stadium was a huge investment we made to bolster our status and come up against the European elite, and with all due respect to the UEL and Conference League, it just doesn’t sit right with me that we aren’t having the big boys come over at N17. A fancy ground obviously doesn’t guarantee European nights, but it’s a shame that despite such heavy spending on infrastructure and players (contrary to popular belief) we have underperformed so much. The revenue we would earn from playing in the CL would be massive too, a lot more than anything we would earn from the Europa League. For instance, the RO16 loser in the UCL makes more than the UEL winner from prize money. There is always the matter of prestige as well, which may lead us to miss out on players. One of the silver linings of not making it to the top four may be lesser fixture congestion next season, but the revenue increase I mentioned can certainly help us get better depth, allowing for more rotation. Furthermore, the traveling distances in the Europa might be greater overall, trips to Munich and Paris are surely less taxing than adventures to Prague and Tel Aviv. And besides, it would be so much better to lose to Real Madrid than to have a repeat of Zagreb. Or Genk. Or Mura. (I have lost track now)

Despite us being in a mini-slump, a good thing is that our rivals haven’t been in their best form either. Manchester United look dysfunctional even with a change in management, Arsenal had a torrid January and lost some depth, while West Ham seem to be running on fumes with a thin squad and European football to contend with as well. It's difficult and challenging, but a top 4 finish cannot be ruled out as of yet. And recently we have also seen that Wolves have made a legitimate push for the top 4 as well, and their excellent defence under Bruno Lage has reaped them many rewards.

PL Table as of 18th Feb 2022

To assess our chances, here is a little measure (very much inspired by Fantasy Premier League’s FDR) I devised to make a guesstimate of what the table can look like at the end of the season. So, it goes like this: if a team plays the top 3 teams (i.e City, Chelsea, and Liverpool) they get 6 points. If they face a team from the top half of the table (i.e each other or Brighton, Southampton, Palace, Villa) they get 3 points. For the teams below, we award them a singular point. Lastly, an additional point would be added if they are playing away, and a point deducted if they are at home.

MAN UTD.	ARSENAL	SPURS
Leeds (A) +2	Chelsea (A) +7	City (A) +7
Watford (H) +0	Brentford (H) 0	Burnley (A) +2
City (A) +7	Wolves (H) +2	Leeds (A) +2
Spurs (H) +2	Liverpool (H) +5	Everton (H) 0
Liverpool (A) +7	Watford (H) 0	United (A) +4
Leicester (H) +2	Leicester (H) +2	West Ham (H) +2
Everton (A) +2	Villa (A) +4	Newcastle (H) 0
Norwich (H) 0	Palace (A) +4	Villa (A) +4
Arsenal (A) +4	Brighton (H) +2	Brighton (H) +2
Brentford (H) 0	Southampton (A) +4	Brentford (A) +2
Brighton (A) +4	United (H) +2	Leicester (H) +2
Chelsea (H) +5	West Ham (A) +4	Liverpool (A) +7
Crystal Palace (A) +4	Leeds (H) 0	Burnley (H) 0
	Newcastle (A) +2	Norwich (A) +2
	Everton (H) 0	Arsenal (H) +2
	Spurs (A) +4
SCORE: 57	​SCORE: 42	SCORE: 38

From my absolutely foolproof method, I can confidently say that we have the best possibility of making it to the UCL.

Jokes aside, it is very difficult to predict what can happen. At one point it looked like we have the best chance but then a regression raises doubts over that. For now, I think Arsenal has the best chance. United do not convince me at all, and I can see them finishing outside the top 6 (it's going to be fun seeing Ronaldo Varane and co. in the Conference League. The Europa League places will be shared between us and Wolves. We seem to have the most favorable run with the most amount of fixtures from the lowest tier of teams designated here. But in the Premier League, any team can beat anyone on a given day, so it's wise not to count our chickens before they hatch.

Let’s see what happens. I hope the boys can prove me wrong and bring Wednesday night football back to the Lane.